Oil is in a bullish channel but a strong 50% Fibonacci level could stop the trend from moving higher. The resistance level is a key decision zone for a bearish bounce or bullish breakout.
A bearish bounce could confirm the current wave pattern outlook, which is a wve 4 (pink) retracement within the downtrend. A bearish breakout below the support (blue) of the channel could send oil back lower (orange arrow). A bullish break above the 50% Fib however could indicate that a different wave pattern is more likely.
Oil is showing bullish momentum, but if the current wave outlook is correct, then this could be the final push higher as part of a wave 5 (blue) of wave C (purple) of wave 4 (pink). A break below the channel could indicate a change of price direction and take price back to the bottom of the larger channel.
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