our weekly Elliott Wave analysis reviews the EUR/USD daily chart, the Bitcoin crypto currency on the 4 hour chart, and XAU/USD on the 4 hour chart.
EUR/USD Indecision Zone Awaits Breakout
The EUR/USD is in a difficult position with strong support and resistance zones nearby. Let’s review:
- The EUR/USD support zone is very strong due to the 88.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the weekly chart.
- Price action has already made a bullish bounce at this 88.6% Fib, which could confirm a larger ABCDE triangle pattern on the weekly chart. The most recent low could be a wave D of that triangle pattern.
- However, price action is building a corrective and slow bullish price swing (gray box). This does not look like a strong bullish reversal.
- Therefore, price action will need to show its true intent. For the bulls that means by breaking above the resistance trend lines (orange). In that case, price action has completed wave C (pink) and is probably building an ABC (gray) upward (green arrows) within a wave E of the weekly triangle.
- But if price action breaks below (orange arrows) the support zone (blue box), then price action is back in a downtrend and price action is building a wave 3 (pink).
BTC/USD Building Bearish Pullback but Aiming at 50k
Bitcoin is building an ABC (pink) pattern as expected in our last Elliott Wave analysis:
- The ABCDE (gray) triangle pattern within wave B (pink) seems finished after the price action broker above the resistance and previous top.
- The current bullish swing is probably a wave C (pink).
- The current consolidation seems to be a wave 4 (gray) within the wave C (pink).
- This Elliott Wave outlook remains valid as long as price action remains above the 50% Fibonacci level.
- A break below the 50% Fib places it on hold and below the 61.8% invalidates it.
- A bullish bounce or breakout (green arrows) could confirm the bullish analysis.
- The main targets for the bullish price swing are 50-51k., 55k, 59-60k and 65k.
Gold Hesitation with Bullish Rebound
The XAU/USD (Gold) seems to be building a retracement after a strong surge upwards:
- The XAU/USD bullish price swing has been labelled as a wave 3 (pink) impulse.
- The retracement is therefore expected to be part of a wave 4 (pink).
- An ABC (grey) pattern seems completed within the wave 4 (pink) – although price action could always extend the correction via a WXY within wave 4. In that case, the ABC completed a wave W of the WXY.
- The wave 4 (pink) remains valid as long as price action stays above the horizontal support levels (purple).
- A bullish breakout (green arrows) above the resistance trend line (orange) could confirm the uptrend. The main targets are the previous resistance (orange box) and previous top.