Weekly Waves 31 October: EUR/USD, GBP/USD and Bitcoin

4 min read

Hi Traders,

Our weekly Elliott Wave analysis reviews the EUR/USD 4 hour chart, the GBP/USD 4 hour chart, and the Bitcoin daily chart.

EUR/USD Bearish ABC After Bullish Rally

The EUR/USD made a bullish breakout rather than reaching the previous bottom last week as our analysis expected:

  1. The EUR/USD bullish breakout above the resistance trend line (dotted orange) sparked a bullish rally.
  2. This indicated the end of the wave B (green) and the start of the wave C (green).
  3. The bullish ABC (green) has probably completed a wave A (pink) of a larger ABC correction (pink) in wave 4.
  4. The wave A (pink) seems completed and the current bearish price swing is expected to start the wave A (green) within wave B (pink).
  5. The main target for wave A (green) is the 38.2% Fibonacci level.
  6. Later on, price action could drop lower to the deeper Fibonacci levels.


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Bitcoin Breaks North of Key Resistance Trend Line

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) was unable to break below the previous bottoms and support zone (green box):

  1. BTC/USD made a bullish breakout above the resistance trend line (dotted orange).
  2. This breakout confirms the continuation of wave 4 (pink).
  3. A bullish ABC (green) pattern is unfolding within that wave 4 (pink).
  4. The breakout marks the end of wave B (green) and the start of wave C (green).
  5. The wave C (green) could test the previous top and 23.6% Fibonacci level.
  6. Price action could go as high as the 38.2% Fibonacci level within wave 4 (pink).
  7. A larger bullish retracement, however, would make the bearish Elliott Wave analysis unlikely.

GBP/USD Facing Strong Resistance at 38.2% Fib

The GBP/USD is completing a bullish 5 wave pattern upwards (green):

  1. The GBP/USD seems to be losing its bullish momentum at the 38.2% Fib resistance (purple).
  2. A last push upward (blue arrow) could complete the rising wedge chart pattern.
  3. A bearish breakout (red arrow) below the support (green) line marks the end of the wave 5 (green) of wave A (pink) and the start of the bearish ABC (green) in wave B (pink).
  4. The bearish wave A (green) should reach the 38.2% Fibonacci level.
  5. The bearish wave C (green) should reach the 50-61.8% Fibonacci level of lower.
  6. Once the ABC (green) is completed in wave B (pink), a bullish wave C (pink) should take price action higher again in a larger wave 4.

Good trading,
Chris Svorcik

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May I know what’s the wave structure for your wave 4(green) in your GbpUsd H4 chart? It doesn’t know like a regular flat, nor a running flat. Thanks.


I appreciate your reply but I think you may have missed my point there. If you could refer to your Gbp/Usd H4 chart above, I was asking what was the wave structure for the bearish wave 4 (green) as indicated in the chart. It doesn’t seem to look like a regular flat nor a running flat. I just can’t figure out what wave pattern it is. Hopefully you could tell me and I eagerly look forward to your answer. Thanks once again. (Somehow my previous message was being deleted and I have to re-enter this here again. 🙁 )

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