? ecs.LIVE Completes 2nd Trading Year with +87% Profit ?

11 min read

Dear Traders,

We have completed a 2nd year with our live trading and signals service (ecs.LIVE). Although the performance was less spectacular than during the 1st year, our clients have seen another decent profitable year.

Let’s delve into the the ecs.LIVE results in more detail by examining the performance of ecs.SWAT and ecs.CAMMACD trading methods one by one.

Year 2 Stats: Lots of Trades but “Only” 87% Profit

The 2nd trading year with ecs.LIVE took place from 19 October 2018 and finished on 25 October 2019 with a total of 52 trading weeks and a profit of +87% (vs +299% in year 1 – we explain the difference later on in the article).

Here are the most significant stats from our trading signals:

  • Total pips: +4,237
  • Net reward: +87%
  • Total trades: 654
  • Average reward to risk: 1.05
  • Win + break even rate: 60%

We also measure the performance over 4 week intervals in the 2nd year (13 periods in total):

  • The best performance occurred in Oct-Nov 2018 where we managed to earn +19.3% in 4 weeks time.
  • We managed to close 11 periods in profit, 1 at break-even and only 1 closed at a loss, which was -3.7%.

Here are the key averages in year 2:

  • Average of 13 trades per week
  • Average of 7% return per month
  • Average of +350 pips per month

Of the 52 trading weeks in year 2, these were the results week by week:

  • Profitable (more than +0.1 r:r): 38 weeks → 73%
  • Loss (less than -0.1 r:r): 12 weeks → 23%
  • Break-even (between -0.1 and +0.1): 2 weeks → 4%

Almost 8 out of every 10 weeks was either positive or break even.

Our Own Account is Up +374%

Besides our ecs.LIVE stats, we also trade the trades on a real, live account. The performance has even been better than the official stats because our account is up +374.5%. We managed to book a profit in only 10 months.

The live account started with $10,000 and has reached a peak of almost $52,000. We managed to make a profit on our own account than with ecs.LIVE because we are more risk tolerant ourselves but do not want to take as much risk in the ecsLIVE channel.

Here are more stats:

Best Trade Setups from Year 2: SWAT

The ecs.SWAT method has some substantial wins in year 2. Although the traditional SWAT method only restarted again from mid June 2019, there were many spectacular wins in these 4.5 months with 13 (!) wins with +100 pips profit or more.

The best trade, however, is undoubtedly the GBP/NZD win with almost+300 pips profit with a reward to risk ratio of almost 3.5:1, which means that the profit was almost 3.5x as large as the stop loss size.

Here are the trades which closed above +100 pips in the past 4.5 months:

  • 24 June: GBP/NZD +131 pips and +1.82 r:r
  • 9 July: GBP/CHF +106 pips and +1.68 r:r
  • 10 July: GBP/NZD +297 pips and +3.45 r:r
  • 11 July: EUR/NZD +106 pips and +1.43 r:r
  • 12 July: GBP/AUD +211 pips and +3.3 r:r
  • 25 July: GBP/USD +101 pips and +1.23 r:r
  • 20 August: NZD/JPY +184 pips and +4.49 r:r
  • 21 August: GBP/AUD +164 pips and +1.84 r:r
  • 12 September: GBP/NZD +170 pips and +1.16 r:r
  • 19 September: EUR/NZD +102 pis and +0.76 r:r
  • 11 October: GBP/AUD+281 pips and +1.2 r:r
  • 15 October: GBP/USD +176 pips and +1.13 r:r
  • 15 October: GBP/JPY +178 pips and +0.95 r:r

Here below you can see the GBP/NZD win from 10 July. It had exits with 1 closing for +292 pips and the other for +301 pips, making an average of +297 pips.

Best Trade Setups from Year 2: CAMMACD

The ecs.CAMMACD trading method has a different style with smaller wins on average but with a higher win percentage than ecs.SWAT. CAMMACD managed to close with a 65% win rate over the entire year.

The best trade of the 2nd year is the EUR/NZD with +155 pips and +2.58 r:r in August 2019. This was a wonderful swing trade based on the 4 hour chart.

Also the new CAMMACD system on the 15 minute chart created a spectacular win in October 2019 with +115 pips and 2.3 r:r ratio. More impressive wins have emerged over the last few weeks since its start.

One of the best trading weeks for CAMMACD took place in January 2019 where Nenad managed to close 10 wins out of 11 setups. It generated a total of +287 pips and +7.64 r:r in just one week.

Another good week occurred in March 2019 with a 100% win rate (12 wins out of 12 setups) and +329 pips of profit and +9.74 r:r.

Recent Changes: Running Performance Average

The ecs.LIVE service has made +299% profit in year 1 and +87% profit in year 2. But we do not want to lean back and sit comfortably on our profits from the past.

This is why we recently introduced a new way of calculating our performance in the short-term: it is a running average of the last 16 weeks only.

This will give traders an idea about our performance in both the short-term and long-term.

Year 2 has also seen us move away from using a standard 1% risk per trade. Both the ecs.CAMMACD and ecs.SWAT methods are using variable risk per setup, which is why we started measuring both our return and the total reward to risk (r:r) return.

The difference between our return and the total r:r? The r:r indicates how much could be made when using 1% risk per setup whereas our return is the profits we made with the risk we used (often we risk less).

We started to measure both figures 5 weeks ago and we recalculate the average each week. Both figures indicate the total over the past 16 weeks and also the monthly average.

  • Current 16 week total r:r → 41.2
  • Monthly average r:r → 11.3

This means that 1% risk per setup would earn 11.3% per month on average. A 2% risk per setup would be 22.6%. (see image below)

The ECS profits made and used for the year 2 stats are lower because we used less risk. So although ECS earned +87% in year 2, other traders might be able to earn more if they used more risk. Our return:

  • Current 16 week total r:r → 24.3
  • Monthly average r:r → 6.7

These numbers will change each week because it works like a moving average. In the past 5 weeks, these levels have the low and the high so far:

  • Current 16 week total r:r → 31.6 – 44.8
  • Monthly average r:r → 17.2 – 25.2

So far, the average performance has fluctuated between these two figures.

Total Stats From the Start: +18,000 pips

The 2 trading years with ecs.LIVE took place from 23 October 2017 and finished on 25 October 2019 with a total of 104 trading weeks.

Here are the most significant stats for both years:

  • Total pips: +17,963
  • Net reward: +387%
  • Total trades: 1,354
  • Average reward to risk: 1.21
  • Win + break even rate: 64%

Here are the key averages since the start:

  • Average of 13 trades per week
  • Average of 16% return per month
  • Average of +690 pips per month

Of the 52 trading weeks in year 2, these were the results week by week:

  • Profitable (more than +0.1 r:r): 84 weeks → 81%
  • Loss (less than -0.1 r:r): 18 weeks → 17%
  • Break-even (between -0.1 and +0.1): 2 weeks → 2%

Year 1 results

Why was the 1st year so much better?

There are a couple of reasons why the first year (+299%) was more profitable than the second (+87%).

First of all, volatility was quite low during large parts of the 2nd trading year with ecs.LIVE. This substantially impacted the number of pips we were able to capture.

Second of all, we were taking less risks in year 2 on many of the setups. In year 1 we always took 1% risk per setup. In year 2, many trades were taken with less than 1% risk per trade.

Third of all, the usual ecs.SWAT swing trading on the 4 hour chart was paused for a while. We resumed with classical SWAT in mid June 2019.

Fourthly, performance fluctuation is normal and expected, especially when taking into account such high levels of return

That said, we still think that almost 100% profit in 1 year is a good result. But of course, we hope for better results in year 3.

Extra Bonus for Joining in November

To mark our 3rd year, we are providing a bonus to all traders – new, old, or current – to subscribe, rejoin or prolong your ecs.LIVE subscription with ecs.LIVE during November 2019.

  • 3 months of ecs.LIVE → receive 1 indicator for free – either the ecs.ATR, ecs.MACD or ecs.CAMARILLA
  • 6 months of ecs.LIVE → receive 2 indicators for free – the ecs.ATR, ecs.MACD and/or ecs.CAMARILLA

More information about these indicators:

Once again, this is only valid for those that join in NOVEMBER 2019.

Wish you many green pips,
Nenad and Chris
Elite CurrenSea

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