the Gold (XAU/USD) is moving sideways in the 21 ema zone. But price action recently bounced at the Fibonacci support levels.
This article reviews the critical breakout level for a bullish trend. We will also analyze how deep a bearish pullback can go.
The XAU/USD is testing the 21 ema zone resistance. A bullish breakout above the Fractal and resistance trend line (purple) confirms the uptrend continuation (green arrows).
A bullish break increases the probability of a wave 4 completed plus the start of the wave 5 (pink). Price will be building a wave 1-2-3 (purple) within that wave 5.
Alternatively, a bearish break (orange arrows) below the 21 ema zone could confirm a larger bearish pullback. In that case, price will first aim at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Which is where the alternative wave 4’ could end.
A break below the 61.8% Fib (red arrow) changes the short-term outlook but not the long-term bullishness. In that case, we should see a wave 4 but of a higher degree and a larger price swing. The main target and support zone is the 38.2% Fib of the larger swing (blue box). The uptrend is only unlikely if price falls deep (red x).
On the 4 hour chart, price action could be developing a wave 1-2 (purple). This is invalid (red x) if price action breaks below the bottom (blue box).
We are still expecting wave C (orange). This should complete wave 2 (purple). A bullish breakout and shallow flag would indicate, however, an immediate bullish breakout.