NZD/USD – Bullish Rally… Correction or New Trend

2 min read
HubertM

HubertM

Forex broker

Dear Traders,

The NZD/USD has produced a sizeable bullish swing over recent weeks. Is this just a temporary correction or already the start of a major uptrend?

Today’s post will provide an updated wave analysis for this currency pair.

ZigZag or 1-2 1-2?

The NZD/USD has produced a sharp turn-around after hitting a low point of 0.6850. This means that the longer-term analysis that I have presented in previous articles for this fx pair is still valid. This scenario highlighted a potential completion of an expanding triangle at the Nov 2017 low, followed by a bullish wave 1 and bearish wave 2.

The move since the Feb high is no doubt awkwardly shaped. The big drop we have seen during Apr/May is extremely large and distorts the potential double zigzag a lot. Nevertheless the scenario is still on the on the cards.

The zigzag could have ended at the May 17 but a further drop into another low below 0.6850 (but above 0.6780) would make more sense. The chart above shows these two price path scenarios. A drop below 0.6780 would entirely invalidate the wave 2 scenario.

The current bullish relief rally is strong and is stretching upwards. The only thing to do right is to wait for more swings to develop and provide more confirmation for one or the other scenario.

All the best along your trading journey.

Hubert

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