How Did Ultima EA & CAMMACD Tackle Turmoil from Financial Markets?

Hi Traders,

The financial markets are in turmoil. The price movements resemble the volatility from the Great Recession of 2008-09. Stock markets were plummeting, USD/AUD/NZD/oil/bitcoin have fallen, and EUR/CHF/JPY/gold have been strengthening. 

The volatility is likely to remain high due to fears over the impact of the Coronavirus on the global economy. There are also uncertainties about how fast and far the virus can spread. 

Despite the hefty ups and downs, the Ultima EA and the CAMMACD trading systems via ecsLIVE have done remarkably well. Let’s review how these two trading systems performed during these financial storms.

Automated Trading via Ultima EA

Automated trading systems are particularly vulnerable to hyper volatility. Wild price movements can derail many automated systems and do serious damage to their performance – or worse. So far, Ultima EA has managed to navigate through the storm without major problems. 

The creator, Mislav Nikolic, did an impressive job of setting up sturdy rules where the EA avoided trading under these circumstances.

The Ultima reaction to the price volatility has been two fold:

1. Ultima EA had one of the best trading months (+204% gain) during February 2020.
2. This was followed by one of the quietest months with very few setups in the first 11 days of March 2020. Why not setups?
   1. The EUR/USD moved up so much that we hardly had any setups on the EUR/USD 15 min. 
   2. Basically the price action had passed our final target and the pullback was too shallow to create new setups. 

Considering the massive losses seen in the markets, not losing any money (so far) is not bad under these circumstances. Remember: sometimes not having a trade equals being in profits. 

What’s next? Nobody knows for sure at the moment. More data is needed in March to make a better assessment about the expected impact. There is a 50-50 chance that things will settle down a few weeks from now and only a mild recession will emerge on a global level. Or events will turn sour and a larger global recession (and the volatility that goes along with it) could emerge as a real risk. 

We cannot predict the future and we are never sure how an automated system will respond to these types of storms that hit people, the economy and the financial system. But so far, so good.

What to do? For Ultima traders, the choice is always yours, the trader. But we can share a few ideas that you could consider, among other choices of course.

1. Stop trading during March to see how the financial markets are behaving but keep the demo account going to see how Ultima EA is performing.
2. Stop trading for the week to see how the financial markets are behaving but keep the demo account going to see how Ultima EA is performing.
3. Keep trading with less risk per trade. Reducing the risk per setup allows you to keep trading but with less overall risk.
4. Keep trading the same risk per trade but with less capital. In certain ways the same as point 3.
5. Keep trading as you are doing now.

How to Handle Winning Streak and Draw-down with Ultima EA

The Ultima EA has had an impressive winning streak in 2020. The accounts were up 14-16% in January and an impressive +204-217% in February. But these types of gains are not sustainable month after month.

Please keep in mind that all systems, also Ultima EA, have ups and down. Ultima’s performance from October 2019 to December 2019 was certainly more modest with my own account:

• -12% in October 2019
• -23% in November 2019
• +14% in December 2019
  (trading with 5% risk per setup)

The drawdown when trading with 3% risk per setup was of course lower. In fact, the system even made a gain, although relatively small:

• +7% in October 2019
• -1% in November 2019
• +17% in December 2019
  (trading with 3% risk per setup)

The point is that traders need to be aware and ready for draw-downs. They should also realize that there could be months where the system performance goes sideways or slides into negative territory. 

After such an outstanding performance in February 2020, we need to be prepared that the performance can be weaker in the upcoming months. Being aware of this reality could help traders handle the potential draw-down or slow down from a trading psychology point of view.

Manual Trading via CAMMACD and ecsLIVE

Manual trading allows way more discretion to the trader. This is both a benefit and a danger at the same time.

• Experienced traders can use their experience to make discretionary decisions that improve their odds. 
• Less experienced traders can run into a negative emotional spiral where revenge trading takes control.

Extreme price movements can trigger extreme reactions, both in the market psychology and trader’s psychology. It takes a calm and cool mindset to stay focused.

Nenad Kerkez, the creator of the ecs.CAMMACD system and head at ecsLIVE, managed just that. He showed traders the way via the ecsLIVE signals. Reducing the risk when needed. Taking trades at the right moments. Avoiding setups when needed.

His account has again hit a record high, despite the financial turmoil.

Good trading,
Mislav Nikolic, creator of Ultima EA
Nenad Kerkez, creator of ecsCAMMACD
Chris Svorcik, creator of ecsSWAT