EUR/USD Emerging Ascending Scallop Before the FED Decision

May 1, 2019

3 min read

Dear Traders,

In the low volatility trading the EUR/USD has formed an ascending scallop pattern looking for more gains before the FED decision today.

Generally, last couple of weeks and I might say, months, the Forex market has experienced a general loss of volatility. ATR on all pairs has significantly dropped. My opinion is it’s because Funds have gone long equities and there is not much movement into other markets at the moment. Cryptos are not safe, real estate is in a bubble, China has too much money outflow restrictions… Yields are lower in bonds. So the funds just sit in Equities for now . most likely we might see rate cuts soon in USA based on bond markets and as I said- Funds have gone long Equities.
Today, the FOMC statement should provide the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future votes. The Interest rate is predicted to stay unchanged – 2.50 %.
Technically, the EUR/USD above 1.1225 is bullish aiming for 1.1269 and possibly 1.1294 after the FOMC statement. But any surprise by the FED could also send the pair down the drain. Below 1.1200 the EUR/USD is bearish targeting 1.1161. Watch for holiday also as the thin liquidity might bring some unexpected movements. Trade with low risk only.

The analysis has been done with the CAMMACD.MTF template.
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