In this week’s analysis, we are going to discuss the following markets
As September begins, there’s an upswing in economic activity, which typically bodes well for the stock markets, unless some significant negative event occurs. September tends to be a positive month for the stock markets in general.
In the United States, all signs point to a robust economy. Key economic indicators reflect increased activity and low jobless claims. A healthier job market, growing demand for energy, and rising pending home sales all point to a positive trend for major US indices. The Nasdaq saw a 2.48% increase, while the S&P 500 gained 1.84%, albeit with slightly smaller gains.
Pending Home Sales (MoM) for July surprised with a 0.9% increase, contrary to the expected -0.6%, indicating strength in the US housing market. This is good news for tech companies and sectors related to housing.
Crude Oil inventories fell to -10.5M, lower than the anticipated -3.2M and previous -6.135M data. This decline benefits Nasdaq by potentially reducing energy costs for tech companies, boosting their profitability. Increased demand for energy was a by-product of increased economic activities within the country, contributing to the index’s performance.
Initial jobless claims, a critical jobs indicator, dropped to 228k, below both the forecast (235k) and previous (232k) numbers. This suggests a healthier job market, spurring consumer spending and corporate earnings for tech companies.
Regarding individual stocks within the Nasdaq Composite, Apple rose nearly 4%, while Nvidia and Tesla both saw around a 6% increase in their stock prices.
Pending Home Sales at 0.9% were positive for the S&P 500, as were other factors like positive GDP growth (albeit slightly below expectations).
Despite slightly weaker GDP figures, all the aforementioned indicators that influenced the Nasdaq also had a positive impact on the S&P 500.
In terms of individual S&P 500 companies, most performed well, except for Microsoft, which saw a modest 0.64% increase. Amazon, Google, and Meta Platforms posted gains of 3%, 4%, and 2.7%, respectively.
The UK’s Nationwide House Price Index (HPI) took a hit with a 5.3% decrease, in contrast to the US housing market’s positive data. This could affect consumer sentiment and spending in sectors like retail, construction, and financial services, which are significant components of the index. However, the FTSE managed to maintain stability due to strong stock performance and increased economic activity in the UK.
Individual companies within the FTSE 100, including Centrica PLC, Barclays PLC, Vodafone Group, and BP, all saw positive gains ranging from 1.88% to nearly 3%.
The German Core Consumer Index held steady in August, signaling stability, and combined with the prospect of a September economic boost, contributed to a 1.14% gain.
Slightly worsening unemployment rates in the EU, including Germany, had a mitigated impact on stock performance. German Unemployment Change and Rate for August were weaker than previous figures.
French GDP posted a slightly positive growth rate of 0.5% for Q2, indicating stability in the Eurozone.
There are potential layoffs looming in Germany, particularly in the manufacturing and construction sectors, according to Stenoresearch, a reputable research company. While this news could be seen as moderately bearish for the DAX, it hasn’t overturned the general upward trend.
For individual stocks within the German DAX, most performed in line with the index’s 1% gain. Notable companies like SAP, Siemens, Deutsche Telekom, and Mercedes-Benz Group saw modest to slight increases in their stock prices.
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Following a tumultuous previous week filled with blood-red charts, the cryptocurrency markets exhibited signs of stability in the past few days, although they couldn’t entirely escape slight value declines. The shift from bearish sentiment to relative stability was triggered by a significant legal victory for Grayscale against the SEC, as ruled by Judge Rao. The SEC struggled to justify its differential treatment of similar products. Apart from some skepticism among crypto analysts regarding the impact of an upcoming platform like X (formerly known as Twitter) on Bitcoin, there was limited news to fuel market movements this week. As a result, the markets largely moved sideways with minor losses.
Cryptocurrencies are infamous for their susceptibility to Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD), where even unconfirmed negative rumors can have a substantial impact. Given the relative youth of the sector, reputable sources are scarce. Analysis on the X platform suggested a bearish trend for Bitcoin, causing short-term holders to witness substantial losses as their profits dwindled, echoing the market’s downturn of 2022. Some experts on the X platform hinted at the possibility of further declines in both BTC and the broader crypto market, followed by a subsequent recovery. Given the profound influence of FUD in the crypto community and the lingering effects of the previous week’s bearish sentiment, Bitcoin struggled to make gains this week, concluding with modest losses of 0.53%, shifting from 26k to 25.9k.
Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency project, closely mirrored Bitcoin’s price movements, which is quite customary for ETH. It, too, experienced a decrease of 0.64%, indicating a week of sideways trading following the previous week’s negative performance. The absence of bullish developments from the Ethereum development team further contributed to the market’s lateral movement.
Binance initiated the gradual discontinuation of support for the BUSD stable cryptocurrency. Simultaneously, the company redirected its focus toward Latin America by introducing Crypto-To-Bank account payment products, a development that holds promise for the company’s prospects. However, despite these strategic moves, BNB recorded losses of 0.78%, surpassing the declines seen in both BTC and ETH.
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During this period, precious metals saw modest gains, with silver mirroring the movements of its more prominent counterpart, gold. A weaker US dollar (USD) typically has a positive impact on gold, as this precious metal is often seen as a safe haven when the USD is losing value.
Despite stable and mostly favorable economic data for the USD, concerns arose regarding higher costs associated with borrowing student loans. Another factor contributing to gold’s success during this period was the slightly weaker USD. Gold tends to perform well when the USD is weaker, as investors view it as a safe asset during times of uncertainty regarding the world’s reserve currency. This perception increases demand for gold, driving up its price.
It’s important to note that a prevailing global trend among central banks is to raise interest rates, which reinforces gold’s position as a safe haven. Consequently, gold has seen a 6% increase in value in 2023 thus far. In the previous week, this flagship precious metal recorded a 1.3% gain as the USD weakened against other major currencies.
Silver closely followed the movements of gold but with more modest gains of 0.77%. This is because a weaker USD also makes silver an attractive safe haven asset. Generally, gold and silver tend to move in tandem, and a similar pattern was evident in the past week. However, unlike gold, silver experienced a moderate appreciation as a safe haven asset.
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During this period, the major currency pairs saw an overall increase in value, while the US dollar experienced a slight decline. Despite positive news coming from the USA, the stock markets remained strong, causing the dollar to weaken. The stability of the Eurozone in terms of its GDP, inflation rate, and unemployment rate had an impact on the currency exchange rates, balancing out the dollar’s strength. As a result, the EURUSD pair gained 0.44%, GBP/USD increased by 0.64%, and USD/JPY saw a slight decline of 0.69%.
The German Consumer Price Index (CPI) on a year-over-year basis was favorable for EUR/USD in August, showing a 6.2% inflation rate, which was slightly lower than the previous figure, indicating stable and slightly decreasing inflation. A stable Eurozone tends to support the Euro against the dollar, making investors require more dollars to purchase Euros. Additionally, the German unemployment change reported a lower-than-expected increase in unemployment, which had a positive impact on the Euro.
The S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for August exceeded expectations, coming in at 43 compared to the forecasted 42.5. This had a small bullish effect on the pound, causing it to appreciate slightly against the dollar.
In Japan, industrial production performed better than expected during this period, contributing to the relative strength of the Japanese yen (JPY). A statement from Bank of Japan board member Toyoaki Nakamura indicated that there were no immediate plans to tighten monetary policy, as recent inflation was primarily driven by more expensive imports rather than wage increases. Nakamura’s stance aligns with the BOJ’s commitment to maintaining an accommodating monetary policy, which translates to lower interest rates and the possibility of further stimulus measures. These factors are favorable for the Japanese yen and the overall Japanese economy.
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How much money would you make or lose last week if you were to invest $1000 in each of the sectors discussed above?
Let’s pick the winning asset from each sector and compare its performance with the flagship automated trading system from Elite CurrenSea. Elite CurrenSea offers a wide range of trading systems and portfolio management solutions, and Portfolio Flagship is its current bestseller. The robot has been tested on real markets.
Let’s see the $1000 investment potential results for the past week.
|PnL on $1000||$31||$24.8||$13||$6.4||-$5.3|
As we can see, Portfolio Flagship and indices share the 1st and 2nd places by past week’s performance, commodities gained 1.3%, while Forex showed 0.64% gains. Cryptos showed losses with -0.53% decline. The one tendency readers would have noticed is how stable Portfolio Flagship systems are when it comes to performance. Every single week, while other assets are showing mixed results, both automated systems show persistent gains.
Team of Elite CurrenSea