Gold (XAU/USD) is in an uptrend after breaking above the key resistance zone (dotted red). The main question is whether price is in a wave 3 (pink) or ABC pattern (green-blue).
The XAU/USD will decide about its long-term path at the Fibonacci levels of wave 4 vs 3 (pink). A break below the 61.8% Fib confirms an ABC pattern up and an ABC pattern down towards the previous bottom (blue line). A bounce at the Fibs however could be used for a rally higher (green arrow). The main target is the previous top (red line).
The XAU/USD made a strong push up. But also a strong decline. This probably completes a wave 3 (pink). The current pullback could be a wave 4 (pink). This is more likely if price action is building a triangle pattern via ABCDE. A break below the 50-61.8% Fibs however invalidates (red x) the wave 4 (pink). A bearish breakout confirms the ABC patterns mentioned in the monthly chart.
The analysis has been done with SWAT method (simple wave analysis and trading).
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