Weekly Waves 1 August: EUR/USD, GBP/USD and Bitcoin

4 min read

Hi Traders,

Our weekly Elliott Wave analysis reviews the EUR/USD daily chart, the GBP/USD daily chart, and the Bitcoin crypto currency weekly chart.

EUR/USD Bullish Correction Aims at 1.05

The EUR/USD is breaking above the previous daily highs. Let’s review that to expect next:

  1. The EUR/USD bullish breakout is occurring after price action has made a higher low.
  2. The larger bearish 3 wave pattern is probably an ABC (yellow) zigzag of a larger WXY correction (gray).
  3. The WXY (gray) should fit within a complex wave 4 pattern (pink).
  4. The wave 4 (pink) is the main Elliott Wave analysis as long as price action respects the Fibonacci resistance levels and ideally stays below the 38.2% Fibonacci level.
  5. Waves 4 are usually complex, lengthy and shallow corrections so a strong bearish bounce at the 38.2% Fibonacci level after a long correction is expected.
  6. A break above the 50% Fibonacci level indicates an uptrend rather than a downtrend.

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GBP/USD Bullish Swing Aims at 38.2% Fib at 1.25

The GBP/USD has also made a bullish breakout above the resistance trend lines (dotted orange):

  1. The GBP/USD seems to be in the same spot and situation as the EUR/USD.
  2. We are expecting an ABC (gray) pattern or WXY correction within a wave 4 (pink).
  3. The wave 4 remains valid as long as price action respects the shallow Fibonacci levels.
  4. A bullish breakout above resistance (red box) could see a push up towards the 38.2% Fibonacci level.
  5. A bearish bounce at the 38.2% Fibonacci level is then the most expected scenario.
  6. A downtrend continuation could aim for a lower low around 1.15.

BTC/USD Bullish Bounce Aims at $30k

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has not made a lower low for at least 4 weeks, which is increasing the chance that the wave A (gray) correction is completed:

  1. After completing the potential wave A (gray), the BTC/USD is therefore expected to make a bullish retracement within a wave B (gray).
  2. The first target is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level near 30k, which is a heavy resistance zone.
  3. A bearish bounce is expected at this 23.6% Fibonacci target.
  4. A higher low could then confirm a larger ABC (yellow) within wave B (gray).
  5. Another bullish push up towards the 38.2% Fibonacci is then expected, which could also be a bearish bouncing spot to test the support again.
  6. Price will then either bounce at support for a move up towards the 50% Fibonacci or for a bearish break and a new low.

Good trading,
Chris Svorcik

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