? USD/CHF in a Very Critical Zone Waiting Confirmation ?

3 min read
Adarwish

adarwish

Author

Hi traders,

the USD/CHF pair is in a downtrend but it made a deep bullish correction … Actually, this correction could actually be part of a wave 4 pattern.

We will review different scenarios as the pair now in a very critical zone as it reached the maximum expected correction ratio of wave 4 and it will either continue the bullish move and invalidate the wave pattern or bounce for a new bearish momentum and start a wave 5.

This article will discuss the wave perceptive and expected scenarios for the pair during the coming days using wave pattern, support and resistance, and SWAT software.

USD/CHF at Critical Fibonacci Resistance Zone

The below chart illustrates the strong downtrend and deep correction within wave 4, which is why the pair has arrived at a very critical spot. Once again, it can either make a bounce and start wave 5 or continue the bullish momentum and invalidate the wave 4 pattern  … Here are the main conclusions:

  • Typical Fib Count of Wave 4 is 38.2 %, 50 % and sometimes 61.8% of wave 3.
  • Price now is exactly at 61.8% Fibonacci.
  • So any up move now will invalid this pattern.

So as long as the price did not break fib 61.8% I expect a big move to the downside. I will skip any buy opportunities for the moment as it does not match the expected wave pattern… However, in the next paragraph, we will discuss the entry point by using SWAT software.

USD/CHF SWAT CHART

Now its time to use the SWAT 4-hour chart to determine the entry points according to the expected wave patterns… SWAT Chart indicates a bullish momentum and needs some developments to confirm the bearish wave…  Here are the main developments to consider:

  • Need a strong bullish candle to close under the 144EMA.
  • The price created a pull flag and the price to break it to the downside.
  • The expected targets are Wizz level 4, 5 and 6.

So traders should wait for the confirmation before trading this pair.

Good trading,

Ahmed

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