Forex Market Analysis: USD Testing Bottom, JPY Weakness

3 min read

Dear Traders,

Are you ready to tackle the Forex market for new trading week ahead?

It’s true that trading might be a bit slower due the fact that the middle of the summer has arrived. Volatility can be lower and ranges appear more often.

However, the Forex market seems to offer some interesting setups and currency pairs for the upcoming week…

Today’s article focused on the US Dollar and the Japenese Yen. Here is the video:

US Dollar at Key Decision Point

The USD is in a strong downtrend but a larger retracement seems imminent and likely. There are multiple factors supporting this analysis, let’s start with an overview on the EUR/USD:

  • 4 hour chart is showing divergence between the tops which means that the 144 ema close on the same 4 hour chart is the main target.
  • 1 hour chart completed 5 bearish waves and seems to be building a 3 wave ABC correction.

The bearish signals are most likely just a retracement and not a reversal because of the larger uptrend on the higher time frames:

  • The monthly candle of July is a strong, large bullish candle with a close near the high, which indicates that the bulls are in control.
  • The retracement of the bullish monthly candle will probably be a 38.2%, 50 or max 61.8% Fibonacci level.
  • The main -27.2% target is at the round level of 1.20.

A similar bullish retracement could occur on the GBP/USD, which could see the development of a potential head and shoulders reversal chart pattern on the 4 hour chart.

Forex Market: Yen Weakness?

Our analysis also reviewed and analyzed which currency pairs trending in the Forex market and we see a potential continuation of the Japanese Yen strength.

The USD/JPY, GBP/JPY and perhaps NZD/JPY are all 3 showing a similar structure:

  • The currency pairs are trending bearishly.
  • They have the potential wide open space to continue lower.

If the trend will indeed continue is not certainty but they are showing the best probability for the upcoming trading week. I still monitor and wait for the ecs.SWAT trigger and confirmation before entering any trade setups.

Many green pips,


More info on our ecs.SWAT course and trading system

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