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We have seen this week, that during risk-off as a result of uncertainty from the French elections that Equities has fallen, the JPY has strengthened and the Japanese Trade Balance has fallen. Despite this, PMI data in both the EU and Japan has been solid. Perhaps the EUR has already priced the French election risk, and the JPY has strengthened accordingly. Depending on first election results, we might see renewed volatility and possible spike.
In the wake of the first round of French elections, the EUR/JPY has been bought on dips, although the daily chart still shows a downtrend so this up-move might be just a correction. The POC is 116.20-35 (ATR low, D L4, 50.0) and it is the last POC zone for bulls. Rejection from POC should get the price to 116.80, 117.00 and 117.80 on higher volatility. Breakout should happen only above 117.85. If the price gets below 115.85 (D L5 support), 115.50 might be tested as the last line of defense for bulls. Be careful.