EUR/USD MACD Divergence Suggests Possible Retracement

2 min read
Nenad Kerkez

Nenad Kerkez

Head of Trading

The EUR/USD has behaved exactly as I analysed 8 days ago making it’s swing from the POC zone towards 1.1400. Additionally, the EU surged to its highest in the last year after Mario Draghi, who spoke at the ECB forum, surprised markets by signaling that stimulus tapering may be closer than the market anticipated.  Draghi highlighted a recovering euro zone economy that “the threat of deflation is gone and reflationary forces are at play”.

At this point we can see that EUR/USD is rejecting the POC counter trend zone (ATR high, D H3, psychological 1.1400 resistance) and it’s coupled with ECS MACD divergence. It tells us that the zone 1.1390-1.1405 could reject the price on subsequent retests. The rejection should target the POC (trend) zone 1.1280-1.1300 (D L3, W H5, 50.0 fib, bullish order block), but also pay attention to 1.1336 that stands as 23.6 fib which is important is strong trends. A 4h close above 1.1430 will possibly open the way towards 1.1475-1.1500.

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